Summary
- The cruise lines continue to struggle to restart operations.
- The market has been as bullish on the cruise lines as the airlines despite airline passenger traffic up to 35% of 2019 levels.
- Carnival stands to burn another $3 billion in cash, if cruises don’t restart meaningfully until the Spring.
Since the cruise lines were forced to start shutting down back in April, the market has seemed to want to invest in the shutdown sector while ignoring the operating airline sector. The latest bullish analyst call has investors piling back into Carnival Corp. (CCL), yet the sector remains un-investable. My investment thesis remains Neutral on the stock until more progress is made on returning to cruising regardless of the virus.